Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.399305 3.689395 4.021607 4.437885 4.957678 5.604138 6.504200
2025-02-09 3.025111 3.390064 3.840495 4.461381 5.342723 6.649510 9.028881
2025-02-16 2.812644 3.215504 3.737366 4.506325 5.712388 7.810758 13.076627
2025-02-23 2.595465 2.997596 3.531830 4.348328 5.706594 8.335636 17.092877
2025-03-02 2.477811 2.893466 3.461224 4.365966 5.982364 9.598798 30.921025
2025-03-09 2.373776 2.795505 3.384140 4.354251 6.196603 10.943941 121.597261
2025-03-16 2.263860 2.679576 3.267447 4.256739 6.211558 11.793008 NaN
2025-03-23 2.217156 2.647459 3.270092 4.358146 6.676746 14.984371 NaN
2025-03-30 2.119861 2.536577 3.142880 4.212244 6.535514 15.435055 NaN
2025-04-06 2.028562 2.429706 3.014862 4.051445 6.324423 15.327970 NaN
2025-04-13 1.958877 2.350850 2.925611 3.952819 6.248370 16.022301 NaN
2025-04-20 1.937027 2.340053 2.941543 4.049875 6.701545 22.108227 NaN
2025-04-27 1.929894 2.352283 2.998030 4.240345 7.538701 50.418758 NaN
2025-05-04 1.891214 2.315320 2.971555 4.262476 7.894230 172.209188 NaN
2025-05-11 1.858838 2.286011 2.955297 4.303266 8.349421 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.798641 2.211610 2.858341 4.159732 8.056305 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.768309 2.181830 2.835660 4.175782 8.408347 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.735881 2.147382 2.802746 4.165122 8.656273 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.693621 2.096146 2.738108 4.076280 8.525287 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.680972 2.090387 2.752112 4.168667 9.302886 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.636623 2.033423 2.673144 4.035673 8.890873 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.591857 1.974869 2.589784 3.888567 8.391211 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.557056 1.931251 2.531623 3.798063 8.170361 NaN NaN